Current Lake Level · Dauphin Lake at Outlet
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FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL (ASL) · WSC PROVISIONAL
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WATCH
Trend
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vs. Operating Range
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to Flood Stage
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Current Status Bulletin · Tap to share with neighbours
Threshold Action Guidance — What property owners should do right now
2026 Lake Level vs. Historic Flood Years · Feet ASL, Jan–Jul
Spring melt has not yet begun. The lake is currently tracking below 2011, 2013, and 2014 at this point in the season.
The Riding Mountain snowpack (157 mm SWE) is the highest in Manitoba and larger than what preceded the 2011 record flood.
Drier soils at freeze-up are the key mitigating factor. April will determine which scenario unfolds.
Lake Level — Last 30 Days · Rate of Rise
Live data collection began March 28, 2026. Additional ranges will unlock as the record builds.
Tributary Early Warning · Basin Feeder Rivers — Water Survey of Canada (Provisional)
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Outlet Monitor · Mossy River Dam
Water exits through the Mossy River dam. When melt inflow exceeds outlet capacity, the lake rises. In 2011, peak inflow reached ~60,000 cfs against a ~500 cfs maximum outflow.
CURRENT OUTFLOW
— cfs
0 cfs
Max capacity ~500 cfs
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Spring Scenario Tracker · Projected Peak Range
~15%
Favourable
855.0 – 855.5 ft
Slow gradual melt, dry April–May. Near or slightly above operating range. Minor nuisance at most.
~55%
Most Likely Tracking ▸
855.5 – 856.5 ft
Normal melt pace, near-average precipitation. Above operating range. Low-lying areas see water. Road impacts likely.
~25%
Unfavourable
857.0 – 858.0 ft
Fast melt with wet April (CFS model correct). Approaching or reaching flood stage. Sandbagging required.
~5%
Severe
858.0 ft+
Rapid melt with rain-on-snow events. At or above flood stage. Significant flooding.
Based on 157 mm snowpack, current soil conditions, and provincial flood model guidance (March 20, 2026). Updated manually as conditions evolve.
Current Conditions & Outlook · Dauphin, MB
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Watch for: Rain during melt accelerates lake rise significantly. Cold snaps are temporary pauses, not resets. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for April–June 2026 (IRI / all models agree on the temperature signal).
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